Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of America
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
055
ABNT20 KNHC 130526
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located over the Atlantic well to the west of the
Azores.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
midway between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa
have become a little better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression
will likely form while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Beginning on
Friday, upper-level winds are likely to become too strong for
development as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for
some development, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
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Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
$$
Forecaster Beven -
Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032026)
...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY... As of 9:00 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 the center of Cristobal was located near 38.6, -38.2 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. -
Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026000 WTNT33 KNHC 130846 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032026 900 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.6N 38.2W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 38.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Cristobal is forecast to dissipate later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Beven
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2026000 WTNT23 KNHC 130846 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032026 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 38.2W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 38.2W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 40.1N 36.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 38.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026619 WTNT43 KNHC 130847 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032026 900 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026 Recent OSCAT data showed that Cristobal has weaken to a tropical depression with max winds around 30 kt. The cyclone continues to have a lack of deep convection based on satellite images. The most current TAFB intensity estimates with a Final T number of 1.5 and maximum winds of 30 kt. As a result, the initial intensity has been brought down to 30 kt for this advisory. Based on the increasingly harsh environmental conditions that the storm is entering as well as the latest model guidance, Cristobal is expected to continue weakening, and it is unlikely that convection will make a comeback. Thus, the NHC forecast now calls for Cristobal to become a remnant low within the next 12 h, with dissipation following soon after. The current motion estimate is east-northeastward, or 075/14 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn a bit more northeastward over the next 12 h, and barely any changes have been made to the previous NHC track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 38.6N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 40.1N 36.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Beven